What happens when regular people—not politicians—redraw district maps for the first time in decades? If recent analyses are correct, it’s about to get weird: most of the proposed maps pit incumbents of both parties against one another in the same district, and one analysis suggests nearly half of all incumbents may be out due to a combination of term limits and redistricting. Is this good news, bad news, or just bizarre? All of the above!
First, the bad news: In every proposed map, at least a few handfuls of Democratic incumbents would be in the same district, and would have to move or run against one another to retain their seats. Additionally, districts that become more politically diverse may result in extra-competitive elections, and Democratic candidates may have to lean moderate to win. Finally, a purge of incumbents could prolong the gridlock in government if less-experienced legislators need more time to build the relationships that lead to bipartisan change. There are also concerns about racial diversity and representation with at least some proposed maps.
The good news? Putting independent panels in charge means citizens have more of a voice in the voting process than ever before. Panels are drawing district lines based on populations rather than pure politics, meaning the days of oddly-shaped districts that give certain voters an edge are, hopefully, over. Candidates will likely have to appeal to at least a few independent or opposite-party voters to win, which could help weed out those on the fringes who appeal to a minority of overall voters. A fairer election system is, ultimately, the best thing for all of us.
The bizarre? In a time of COVID pandemic-induced social and economic chaos, we’re adding political uncertainty to the mix, too? I guess that’s the 2020s for ya. Let’s hope it ends in 2022!
So how do candidates prepare to campaign in this new environment? For most, it will be much of the same: First, connecting with voters to find out what their critical issues are. Then, crafting a platform that reflects the needs and concerns of constituents. Finally, building a strong rapport with the community and gaining the name recognition you need to win.
The best news out of all? The Guerrilla Politic can help with everything. We use data to show voter trends and fine-tune our field and marketing strategies. We help candidates highlight their skills, experience, and passion to create an authentic and memorable brand. And we maximize the reach of limited marketing budgets to ensure that candidates get in front of the people who matter most—their voters. Whether you’re considering a run or have already put your hat in the ring, check out our new training sessions, read more about our services, or drop us a line with your questions. We’re happy to help, and we’re ready to tackle redistricting head on.